Solar May Be Cheaper Than Fossil, Nuclear Power in Five Years, GE Says

A combination of improvements in solar efficiency and lower costs through increased manufacturing will gradually bring down the cost of solar power.  Though fossil fuel prices are volatile, the long-term trend is upward as increased demand and peak oil create a supply and demand inequity that will be exacerbated by any economic recovery.  Anyone considering investing in renewable energy, whether it's solar, wind, geothermal, wind, bio-fuel, or other sustainable power, has to look at projected prices of fossil fuels when calculating the financial advantage to their investment.  A small edge today could become a huge gain in just a few years.

From Bloomberg:


Solar power may be cheaper than electricity generated by fossil fuels and nuclear reactors within three to five years because of innovations, said Mark M. Little, the global research director for General Electric Co. (GE)
“If we can get solar at 15 cents a kilowatt-hour or lower, which I’m hopeful that we will do, you’re going to have a lot of people that are going to want to have solar at home,” Little said yesterday in an interview in Bloomberg’s Washington office. The 2009 average U.S. retail rate per kilowatt-hour for electricity ranges from 6.1 cents in Wyoming to 18.1 cents in Connecticut, according to Energy Information Administration data released in April.
GE, based in Fairfield, Connecticut, announced in April that it had boosted the efficiency of thin-film solar panels to a record 12.8 percent. Improving efficiency, or the amount of sunlight converted to electricity, would help reduce the costs without relying on subsidies.
The thin-film panels will be manufactured at a plant that GE intends to open in 2013. The company said in April that the factory will have about 400 employees and make enough panels each year to power about 80,000 homes.
Solar-panel makers from Arizona to Shanghai are expanding factories to add more cost savings that analysts say will sustain the industry’s expansion. Installations may increase by as much as 50 percent in 2011, worth about $140 billion, as cheaper panels and thin film make developers less dependent on government subsidies, Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecast.

Solar Costs Dive

The cost of solar cells, the main component in standard panels, has fallen 21 percent so far this year, and the cost of solar power is now about the same as the rate utilities charge for conventional power in the sunniest parts of California, Italy and Turkey, the London-based research company said.
Most solar panels use silicon-based photovoltaic cells to transform sunlight into electricity. The thin-film versions, made of glass or other material coated with cadmium telluride or copper indium gallium selenide alloys, account for about 15 percent of the $28 billion in worldwide solar-panel sales.
First Solar Inc. (FSLR), based in Tempe, Arizona, is the world’s largest producer of thin-film panels, with $2.6 billion in yearly revenue.

Smart Grid

Little also said the U.S. transition to a full smart grid will take “many, many years” to develop.
A complete smart grid would consist of millions of next- generation meters installed in businesses and homes, appliances that adjust their energy use when prices change, and advanced software to help utilities control electricity flows, he said.
“I think it’s going to be a long time before we can realize the full potential of the smart grid,” he said. “But it is coming.”
GE this year plans to introduce the “Nucleus,” a device that will let consumers track their household electricity use with personal computers and smart phones. The company also is investing in its appliance and lighting unit, including $432 million for U.S. refrigeration and design centers announced in October.
Utilities need to have incentives to put in place devices that save energy, and Congress needs to provide greater certainty on tax policy surrounding renewable energy, Little said.

Google invests $55 million in Mojave Desert wind farm

I think Google likes doing things that are just plain good, regardless of whether or not they're profitable.  In many cases, like their award for the 100-mpg car, their actions spur others to think and behave in a manner that's good for the planet.  Will a significant investment in a wind farm make a difference?  I sure hope so.

From The L.A. Times:

Google Inc. is investing $55 million in a large Mojave Desert wind farm, pumping fresh air into California's struggling wind power industry.

The Internet search giant made the announcement in Anaheim at the industry's largest gathering, where wind farm developers and turbine makers said the investment could be a key step in California's efforts to regain its once enviable title as the world's capital for wind power.

"We just fell off a cliff," said Gary Polakovic, a consultant for San Diego wind energy developer EnXco Inc. "But all eyes are on California now. It's our chance to do this right."

Google said Tuesday that it was partnering with Citibank, which is also shelling out $55 million to help finance part of the Alta Wind Energy Center, one of the world's largest wind installations.

When complete, the project in the Tehachapi Mountains will generate 1.5 gigawatts, enough to power 450,000 homes. The installation will help boost wind jobs in the state 20% while feeding more than $1.2 billion into the Kern County economy, according to developers.

The project stands in stark contrast to the state of wind turbines in California.

In the industry's early years, California led the way, with its turbines generating 90% of the world's wind power as thousands of massive propellers dotted mountains from Palm Springs to San Francisco.

But in recent years, California — hurt by permitting delays and expiring government incentives — has seen its share of the world's wind power plunge to 1.6% as other states and countries bolstered their alternative energy projects, according to the Global Wind Energy Council. The state gets just 3% of its electricity from wind, compared with 15% in Iowa and 8% in Texas.

"We stalled and fell behind," said Lorelei Oviatt, planning director for Kern County. "It's not just where the wind blows — if it were that simple, everyone would be happy."

California's woes have been a magnified version of the troubles facing the national wind industry, analysts said.

Last year, the market was "in distress," said Denise Bode, chief executive of the American Wind Energy Assn., the trade group that organized the Anaheim conference. The amount of generation capacity installed was half the amount of the year before. The U.S. trailed China in 2009, even though it was a record year, and was eclipsed again in 2010.

Things are still looking "pathetic," said Jonathan Kim, a power and utilities analyst with Royal Bank of Scotland. Attempts by inexperienced real estate developers and farm owners to launch wind projects have failed by the thousands, he said.

"Sales are low, everyone's stock is depressed, and we're seeing a lot of people struggling," Kim said. "It's just not a good time for the sector."

Unpredictable government incentives that expire every year or two are a major culprit, he said. A substantial federal tax credit is set to end in January, and investors fear that it won't be renewed.

Critics have also ramped up complaints that turbines are noisy eyesores that kill birds and reduce property values.

But even in such a sour environment, many analysts and industry officials said California is poised to return to its heady days.

The state is hosting the wind conference for the first time since 2007. The confab at the Anaheim Convention Center is expected to draw 20,000 people, up from 7,000 four years ago.

Big tech companies such as Google, with its massive data centers that need huge amounts of electricity, are helping refuel the industry. Google has pumped at least $400 million into alternative energy projects, including an Oregon wind farm and an offshore transmission project on the East Coast. The company has also plunged $168 million into BrightSource's Ivanpah solar installation.

The industry could also benefit from a new clean power standard, the most aggressive one in the country, signed by Gov. Jerry Brown last month. The legislation, which requires California's utilities to get 33% of the electricity they sell from renewable sources by 2020, has already led some companies to open new offices in the state.

In Kern County, saddled with 17.5% unemployment, wind is fast becoming one of the best hopes for jobs and tax revenue. Turbines taller than the Statue of Liberty are popping up in the Tehachapis, part of ambitious projects such as the Alta installation. Major efforts are also underway in the state's Sonoma and San Gorgonio regions.

"We're seeing this as a renaissance of California's lead in the wind sector," Bode said.

Investment in solar energy is strong - outside the U.S.

While I post many stories about American individuals, companies, and governments investing in solar energy - often very significant investments - the amount of money invested in this country, and the amount of energy being supplied by solar and other renewable energy sources is relatively small compared to both our usage and the investment being made overseas.

From Bloomberg:


Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s state-owned renewable energy company, is working on a portfolio of renewable power generation projects worth about $5 billion, according to Frank Wouters, the director of Masdar Power.
In Spain, the company has three solar projects worth about $1 billion, Wouters said at a media briefing in Abu Dhabi today. A 20-megawatt plant will start producing power this month and two 50-megawatt facilities will start this year, he said. Masdar also has stakes in the 1-gigawatt London Array offshore windfarm and a 6-megawatt offshore wind project in the Seychelles.
Abu Dhabi, which holds almost all the oil reserves in the United Arab Emirates, is investing in solar and wind power all over the world to pioneer the use of renewable energy. The emirate is building Masdar City, a business and residential complex designed to minimize carbon emissions, and serves as headquarters for the International Renewable Energy Agency.
Masdar is a key component of Abu Dhabi’s aim to generate at least 7 percent of the power it uses from renewable sources by 2020. Growth in power demand to more than 20,000 megawatts by the end of the decade would require about 1,500 megawatts from projects such as wind and solar plants, according to data from Abu Dhabi’s utility.
The company’s domestic projects include the Shams 1 project, the largest concentrated solar plant in the Middle East, which is 45 percent complete and will be ready next year, according to a statement received by e-mail today. Masdar expects to award a construction contract for the 100-megawatt Noor 1 photovoltaic plant by the end of 2011 and may start building a 30-megawatt wind farm on Sir Bani Yas island.
Concentrated solar plants reflect sunlight, usually with mirrors, to heat liquids and create steam to turn turbines and generate power. Photovoltaic plants use solar panels, which convert sunlight directly to electricity. Masdar already operates a 10-megawatt facility of this type in Abu Dhabi.

From Reuters:

Solar power in India could cost the same as conventional electricity by 2019-20, a report said on Tuesday, which could boost the use of an energy source regarded as key to curbing emissions in the world's third-worst carbon polluter.
A KPMG report said more aggressive policy could see solar power prices decline at a rate of 5-7 percent annually over the next decade, ensuring "grid parity", or the point when solar power costs the same as conventional power, as early as 2017-18.
Such targets are well in line with India's plans to produce 20 gigawatts (GW)of solar power by 2022, though hurdles such as steep production costs, lack of data and trained manpower remain. [ID:nL3E7GN11C]
"The pace at which the gap between solar power tariffs and the landed cost of power will be bridged will determine the pace at which solar power will take off," the report said.
"While we expect grid parity for these consumer categories -- domestic and agriculture -- in 2019-20, based on state-specific and end-use specific cost economics, the adoption of solar is likely to happen earlier."
It said certain states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat in the west and Tamil Nadu in the south could reach grid parity earlier than others because of more favourable policies and sunnier weather, thereby reducing costs.

First Large Scale 24/7 Solar Power Plant to be Constructed in U.S

Using a method not too different from that which Archimedes is believed to have used to thousands of years ago, this plant will focus the Sun's rays on a single collector, raising the temperature to over one thousand degrees.  Being able to store the heat and release it later when the sun isn't shining overcomes one of the primary drawbacks to solar power generation.

From Clean Technica:


The Obama administration provided a loan guarantee of $737 million to SolarReserve on Thursday to construct the first large-scale solar power plant that stores energy and provides electricity 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The solar power project will be constructed in Nevada. (Note that BrightSource Energy is at a similar stage in the development of a larger solar thermal power plant in the Mojave Desert, receiving a DOE loan guarantee of $1.37 billion in February 2010 and $168 million from Google this April.)
The SolarReserve power plant utilizes what is called thermal energy storage to store heat collected from the sun, which is then utilized by the power plant to boil water and produce steam. The steam then turns a steam turbine which generates electricity. This is a how a solar thermal power plant generally works, but keep in mind that there are different types of solar thermal power plants, some of which are not steam.
This type collects heat and stores it in molten salt which is then circulated to the boiler. The boiler… boils water into steam which then rushes through a steam turbine.
17,500 heliostats* focus or concentrate sunlight onto the collector at the top of a 640-foot tall tower until it reaches a temperature of 1,050 degrees Fahrenheit.
The power plant’s electricity generation capacity (basically, how much it can generate) is 110-MW, which makes it one of the larger-scale solar power plants out there today.
You might have guessed by now that this type of power plant is able to provide electricity at night, and all week, because it stores heat in the form of salt that is released in the evening so that the plant can continue to generate electricity when it is dark, cloudy, or stormy.
“This solar technology is a genuine alternative to baseload coal, nuclear or natural gas burning electricity generation facilities,” Kevin Smith, SolarReserve’s chief executive, said in a statement.
Opponents of solar energy usually use the fact that there is no sunlight at night against solar power plants and say that they cannot provide electricity at night, which is not true. It is actually a cost issue that makes it impractical (traditionally, I’m not sure how economical this new plant or others like it will be) to generate electricity at night using a solar plant.
Hopefully this milestone project turns out to be economical and works well.
*A heliostat is a motorized mirror which is able to position itself accordingly so that it can reflect the maximum amount of sunlight required onto the collector in conjunction with thousands of others.

Don’t let California’s solar initiative go dark

When I was a child learning to ride a two-wheeled bicycle, my dad would hold the back of the seat and run alongside of me as I pedaled down the sidewalk.  Because of the significant investment required by homeowners who want to add solar power to their houses, many need continued government incentives to "hold the seat" for them until economies of scale bring down the costs of producing photovoltaic panels.

From Signon San Diego:


Gov. Jerry Brown and the California Legislature have enacted the nation’s strongest standard for renewable energy, calling for 33 percent of California’s electricity to come from clean and renewable sources by 2020. To achieve these goals, the Legislature must extend the California Solar Initiative. CSI is the nation’s most successful solar installation program, and already has saved Californians over $1 billion.
The program is running out of funds, and Sen. Christine Kehoe, D-San Diego, has sponsored Senate Bill 585 to enable the Public Utilities Commission to complete the incentive program. Without this important bill, California could miss out on billions more in savings.
Since 2007, the incentive program has helped drive the average cost of solar systems down 15 percent while creating 36,000 jobs, and providing $1.3 billion in net energy savings to schools, public agencies and nonprofits. It also spurred private investment, with the PUC reporting that for every dollar the state spent on incentives, another $2.62 was invested in California solar from other sources. The program has helped make California a national leader in creating solar energy jobs and attracting clean energy investment. Because of the value it provides to ratepayers, the watchdog Department of Ratepayer Advocates also supports the continuation and expansion.
CSI was designed as a 10-year program. Due to its overwhelming success, it has accomplished eight of 10 steps in the first five years, and outpaced its funding. The nonresidential program, which provides solar incentives for businesses, governments, schools and nonprofits, has run out of budget. Filling in that shortfall would require $190 million in funding. But because of the declining rate structure, it would fund at least 400 megawatts of clean electricity, some 20 percent of the program’s goal.
The governor has just enacted a strong mandate for clean energy, but a mandate alone will not put projects in the ground. A smart incentive program enables the renewable energy industry to grow in the short term so it can provide a foundation for our state’s prosperity in the long term.
While the state’s 33 percent renewable energy by 2020 mandate is a worthy long-term goal, passing SB 585 and fully funding the CSI program would spur investment and create renewable energy jobs today. There are more than 50 megawatts worth of solar energy projects in the queue waiting for this bill to pass. That’s $250 million in investment that California sorely needs. Passage of SB 585 would bring in $2 billion more.
Extending the incentive program will bring other benefits as well. By supporting the market, it will help drive down the costs of mid-scale distributed solar. Siting solar projects in proximity to businesses and cities can generate significant amounts of power without the environmental impacts or lengthy transmission lines of large-scale desert solar. Mid-scale solar is cost-effective and environmentally friendly, but it’s a challenge because rooftop space is limited, and land is expensive.
That’s why our company, SPG Solar, recently introduced the world’s first operational floating solar energy system. Our Floatovoltaics system is designed for installations on fresh water surfaces, ranging from small ponds to large reservoirs. Floating solar projects can create clean energy right in the towns and businesses that need it, without using up valuable real estate, or impacting delicate ecosystems. Being sited over the water not only reduces evaporation, but also boosts performance by keeping the solar panels cool. Potential sites include many farms, dairies and wineries. A typical city reservoir could support three megawatts of panels, generating electricity for hundreds of homes and saving the city millions of dollars.
Extending the California Solar Initiative is the fastest way to continue this type of clean energy innovation. It will drive down costs, create jobs and spur immediate investment to help our economic recovery. By signing a mandate for 33 percent renewable energy, Gov. Brown has given us ambitious clean energy goals. By extending the incentive program, the Legislature can ensure these goals become a reality.

Toys 'R' Us Will Install Nation's Largest Solar Rooftop Array

Toys R Us isn't playing around when it comes to renewable energy.  A five megawatt solar array is a big investment that should provide a good return on investment over the life of the project.

From Care2:

It was recently announced that the New Jersey distribution center for Toys 'R' Us will soon be home to the largest rooftop array of solar panels in North America.

Upon completion, the 5.38 megawatt on-site solar mechanism will occupy 869,294 square feet of the Flanders, New Jersey building, and is estimated to generate 72 percent of the electrical needs for the Toys "R" Us facility.

Generating the same amount of electricity using non-renewable sources would result in the release of an estimated 4,387 metric tons of carbon dioxide, the equivalent emissions from 860 passenger vehicles or that of the electricity used to power 532 homes annually.

The solar power system will be comprised of thin-film photovoltaic panels that are flexible, lightweight, durable and maintain performance, even in sub-optimal lighting conditions. In addition, the non-ballasted, non-penetrating and removable racking system allows access to the roof and prevents debris build-up and maintenance issues.

"New Jersey's leadership in providing renewable, clean energy opportunities for companies has helped pave the way for an installation of this size and underscores the state as a champion for solar energy growth across North America," said Jerry Storch, Chairman and CEO, Toys "R" Us, Inc.

Earlier this month, Care2's Kristina Chew reported that New Jersey is second in solar capacity in the US, only behind my native state of California. Unfortunately, residents in some of the well-endowed neighborhoods have complained about newly-installed solar panels because they're "ugly" and could lower their property values.

In January 2010, a rooftop solar power system was installed at the Babies "R" Us in North Brunswick, NJ through a partnership with the developer. This was the first "R" Us store to utilize solar energy, which currently provides approximately 67 percent of the electricity needs at that location.

3D Solar Cell Boosts Efficiency By 80 Percent

One major hurdle to widespread implementation of solar power is the high initial cost relative to the savings, or payback.  Tax incentives and other government subsidies help many homeowners overcome that obstacle.  Technological improvements and lower costs due to economies of scale will also help.  Previous photovoltaic panels converted a small portion of the sun's energy into electricity (the rest was reflected or converted to heat).  The news below could be a huge boost to the industry, if the cost to produce panels doesn't jump.

From Energy Matters:

Scientists at the USA's Dept. of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory have created a three-dimensional solar cell which could boost photovoltaic (PV) light-to-energy conversion rates by 80 percent.
 
Typically, when sunlight is strikes the surface of a solar panel and is absorbed by PV cells, some of the charge created by solar photons becomes trapped by natural flaws in the bulk materials that make up the layers of the cell, resulting in a loss of final electricity output.

Optimising the energy efficiency of these charges – negative electrons and positive "holes" – was the focus of the Oak Ridge team, led by Jun Xu, of ORNL's Chemical Sciences Division.

"To solve the entrapment problems that reduce solar cell efficiency, we created a nanocone-based solar cell, invented methods to synthesize these cells and demonstrated improved charge collection efficiency," Xu said.

Oak Ridge’s 3D solar cell uses zinc-oxide n-type nanocenes to serve a framework for conducting electrons. A p-type matrix of polycrystalline cadmium telluride – often used in thin-film solar panel manufacture - serves as the primary photon absorber medium and hole conductor.

With the new structure and materials, the new cell demonstrated a light-to-energy conversion efficiency rate of 3.2 percent, compared to 1.8 percent efficiency of a conventional two-dimensional solar cell structure.

"We designed the three-dimensional structure to provide an intrinsic electric field distribution that promotes efficient charge transport and high efficiency in converting energy from sunlight into electricity," Xu said.

A world leader in solar energy research and development, Oak Ridge National Laboratory scientists are also working on a hybrid solar cell that harnesses the light-harvesting abilities of photosynthetic bacteria.
 
Unfortunately, Oak Ridge National Laboratory appears to have attracted some unwanted attention recently and last week shut down email and internet access after a virus designed to steal technical information successfully invaded its network.